The monotonous, sometimes maddening commuter path between here and Pennsylvania is Interstate 84, where the scenery zips by and where drivers speed up in unison to keep trucks in the right-hand, eastbound lane on the way up Greenville mountain.

Just off that, however, on stretches of Mountain Road, Route 6, and Guymard Turnpike, tranquility all but reigns. I took those roads a few days ago. It is along roadways like these where the Orange County of 80 years ago (farming) meets the Orange County of 25 years ago (modest houses), and both eras meet the Orange County of just two or three years ago (big, big houses).

Even so, this is a part of the county that has an awful lot of space left. A lot of space. What are we likely to see, five and six and 10 years from now?

Route 6, in particular, has extensive development potential, particularly closer in to Middletown. Note that some parcels here have railroad access, traditionally viewed as an asset in industrial land development. I know that it's fashionable to look askance at commercial development, but taxes will go sky-high if all of this open land becomes houses.

The number of working farms continues to decline, and of the traditional ones that remain, they fall into one of two categories: tiny and hanging on by a thread, where even the Holstein cattle look tired; or larger, with enough scale to make it for a while. Save for specialty farms, the economics of agriculture are going against it in Orange County.

I saw at least one working horse training center, and this strikes me as one of the survivors. Not just that this place in particular will be around, but this category is good for Orange County.

There's a good deal of land for sale, and some of it's been for sale for a while. I'm thinking that if it didn't sell in the last boom, it won't anytime soon.

New residential construction is rapidly coming to a halt. Not absolutely, of course, but compared to four or five years ago, the slowdown is dramatic. Developers have for a couple of years seen western Orange as the last open frontier, where it didn't take giving up one's first-born child to get through the planning board. When the construction picks up, and it will, watch for the uptick here first.