CHARLOTTE - More than half of the land now unprotected and undeveloped in Cabarrus County will be developed by 2020, according to a new study conducted by researchers at UNC Charlotte.
In 1976, only 2 percent of such land in the county was developed - or made up of impervious surfaces, such as buildings and roads. By 2030, the research indicates, that figure will jump to 68 percent. Many residents have already sensed the pace of development accelerating, said Dave Cable, leader of the Open Space Protection Collaborative, a group that commissioned the research and consists of six regional land preservation groups spanning 24 counties.
This study, Cable said, is the first to so clearly present how rapidly the region is consuming land.
“We’re kind of like a frog in a pot that’s heating up,” said Cable, also executive director of the Catawba Lands Conservancy.
Previous studies have analyzed census tracts, which researchers said are too large to accurately reflect the ratio of developed to undeveloped land.
This study, released Tuesday by the Renaissance Computer Institute at UNC Charlotte, produced maps from historical satellite imagery to track patterns over a 30-year period in parcels measuring less than a quarter of an acre.
Researchers then analyzed several variables to gauge the probability of conversion to development and projected trends through 2030 by using demographers’ population projections.
The leaders of several land preservation organizations were startled by some of the findings:
• Development in the greater Charlotte region has increased more than 850 percent between 1976 and 2006.
• During that period, 105 acres of natural and rural land converted to development per day.
• By 2030, more than 2.2 million acres, or 30 percent of the region’s landscape, will have converted.
• Within 25 years, all unprotected land in Mecklenburg will have converted.
In Cabarrus, the 1976 map shows little more than a smattering of development roughly paralleling the U.S. 29 corridor.
By 2006, development had begun to expand into much of the northern and western sections of the county.
By 2030, projections indicate, only splotches of undeveloped land will remain in the north and west, and development will have begun to expand to the south and east, which are currently relatively untouched.
During the most recent period of study from 1996 through 2006, only Mecklneburg, Union and Catawba converted faster than Cabarrus among counties in the Charlotte region, said Doug Shoemaker, a research analyst who presented the study.
Projections do not factor in planned and unbuilt projects such as the North Carolina Research Campus, likely to dramatically reshape Kannapolis and surrounding areas.
“Our projections are conservative,” Shoemaker said. “Your results may vary.”
Although humans have inhabited the region for about 15,000 years, residents haven’t dramatically altered the landscape until recent decades, said Jason Walser, executive director of the Land Trust for Central North Carolina.
Walser and others who helped to unveil the study said they are not against development but do want to encourage careful planning.
Development has long-term implications for environmental and quality-of-life issues such as air quality, noise, access to open space, flood protection and water storage and quality, the preservation leaders said.
“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Walser said. “2030 is really not that far away in the grand scheme of things.”
Shoemaker said he hopes the community will learn from the effort.
Growth is a necessity, Shoemaker said, but it can be managed to “maintain what we cherish.”
The study’s research and maps will now be offered to government planners, developers and elected officials in both Carolinas.
“Everybody needs to use these tools to try to picture a different destiny,” Shoemaker said.
