The pursuit of more bucks produced a lot of bull.

Texas regulators have issued permits in the Panhandle for enough dairy cattle to house more than a tenth of the entire U.S. dairy population, according to Texas Commission on Environmental Quality records and U.S. agricultural statistics.

The numbers alarmed water planners trying the balance the High Plains demands on the Ogallala Aquifer over the next 50 years. But real estate and dairy experts laughed off the estimates, explaining a tactic landowners across the Panhandle used to boost property values as dairy speculation took off on the High Plains.

"I tell people all the time," said Charles Maguire, the commission's section manager for water quality assessments and standards. "Permits issued does not mean cows on the ground."

Texas requires dairies and other livestock businesses to have Confined Animal Feed Operation permits. Environmental studies on the land must show that the business is a certain distance from homes, businesses and public places and that animal waste will not contaminate ground or surface water.

It takes Texas four to 10 months to permit property. Without a permit in place, a dairy farmer can't start construction and risks paying certain taxes due to down time.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has more than 1 million head of dairy cattle permitted in six counties north of Lubbock considered rich territory for dairy operations. Land in Parmer County alone, already a strong milk producer, was permitted for more than 280,000 head of cattle.

Chambers of commerce and other groups began recruiting dairies to the region five years ago. Dairies need more employees, newer support businesses and add millions more to a county or city's tax base than a typical farm operation on the same amount of property.

"It's just night and day," said Curby Brantly, chief appraiser for Parmer County. "It's just hundreds of thousands of dollars versus millions of dollars."

Farmers noticed. The permits cost roughly $7,500 to acquire, a cost easily spread across the property. Appraisers and rural real estate agents reported that as dairies first

moved into the region, land with CAFO permits could land anywhere from a 30 percent premium to roughly double the value of the property.

So the acreage permitted for dairy operations across the High Plains exploded.

"They were trying to offer an enticement to get somebody to look at their land to buy it," said Norm Mullin, president of Enviro-Ag Engineering in Amarillo. "And it worked. Out of all the dairies that are up here on the High Plains, probably, at least 60 percent of them have bought permitted land."

Early success stories spread and soon landowners began seeking permits for property unlikely to ever actually attract a dairy operation, consultants and dairy experts said. Land with poor water, far from paved roads and other infrastructure was soon permitted

Irrigated crops dominate water consumption from the aquifer, accounting for more than 90 percent of the annual draw from the enormous resource spread under the Panhandle.

But dairy water use raised concerns for farmers and planners in the area. Dairies pump year round for their cattle, crops and cleaning operations, and have much more visible water use.

Early projections based of the permits presented to the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group two weeks ago suggested dairy consumption would by 2020 drink up more than twice the amount of water Lubbock uses each year, feeding nearly 1.2 million cattle. By 2040, the numbers climbed to more than three times Lubbock's consumption.

"It's not going to happen," Ellen Jordan, a dairy specialist with Texas Agrilife, said of the numbers. "There are roughly 9 million head of dairy cattle in this country, and I do not see that total number expanding."

Texas Association of Dairymen executive director John Cowan said the market in the Panhandle couldn't support such numbers.

Estimates from several dairy associations do show continued growth through 2010, bringing more than 143,000 head of dairy cattle, up from the current 117,000. Through 2020, the association estimates another 40,000 head of dairy cattle will join a 13-county area across the plains.

But the market couldn't support much more, Cowan said.

"That growth that's out there, the potential of it is, yes, those cows are permitted," Cowan said. "If you don't have a market for the milk, you don't have a need for the milk, the milk's not going to go there."

Melanie Barnes, a Texas Tech geologist who will chair a committee of the regional water planning group tackling accurate dairy numbers, found the new estimates far more realistic.

The permits would probably need to be referenced, but she said the committee needed the water plan to reflect the economic realities of the region. Water estimates would probably continue to change in future planning processes as the dairy numbers settled, she said.

"Personally, it sounds much more reasonable than what was originally discussed," Barnes said. "That's the beauty of this legislation, is we can keep reviewing this as much as we want. And I think we should."

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